UK GDP Growth Better Than Expected in Early 2025 – But Can It Last?
The UK economy got off to a surprisingly strong start in 2025. According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), GDP grew by 0.7% between January and March – a fair bit better than most experts predicted.
So, what’s driving this unexpected bounce? And should we all start celebrating – or stay cautious?
What boosted UK GDP growth in Q1 2025?
In short: services and production.
The services sector – everything from retail and advertising to computer programming – grew by 0.7%. Production wasn’t far behind, up 1.1%. Construction, however, stayed flat.
The ONS highlighted strong performances in areas like car leasing, wholesale, and computer services. Think of it like a car engine – not firing on all cylinders, but certainly running better than before.
It’s a marked shift from the final quarter of 2024 when the economy barely grew (just 0.1%). And it’s pushed the UK into pole position as the fastest-growing economy in the G7 right now.
What’s behind the growth spurt?
A big part of the bounce is down to businesses rushing to get exports out the door before new US tariffs kicked in. That unexpected push helped lift output across several sectors.
There was also a rebound in business investment – a welcome change after a slowdown at the end of last year.
Add to that the recent UK-US trade agreement, which helped soften some of the harshest potential tariffs, and you’ve got a decent recipe for short-term growth.
But don’t pop the champagne just yet
Here’s an alternative view.
A lot of the good news is probably short-term. The rise in National Insurance, higher living wage costs, and a wave of household bills in April could drag growth down in the months ahead. We’ll get a better idea when the next GDP figures are revealed on 30 June.
Markets seem cautious too. Despite the upbeat numbers, the FTSE 100 has been a bit wobbly – partly due to falling oil prices, but also because investors aren’t sure how long the good times will last.
What should you do if you’re investing?
If you’ve got money in the markets or you’re planning your financial future, now’s the time to stay level-headed.
Growth might be up, but uncertainty is still present. Trade deals, tariffs, and domestic pressures could all shift the picture quickly.
Not sure how it all affects you? That’s where a good financial planner comes in. They can help make sense of what’s happening and keep your portfolio steady – whatever the next quarter brings.
Takeaway: The UK economy has kicked off 2025 with a stronger-than-expected performance. But with plenty of economic headwinds on the horizon, it’s worth staying cautious – and making sure your finances are ready for whatever comes next.